Upstart Holdings 8-K
PositiveEarningsGuidance
Auto and Home reach positive Contribution Margin a quarter early; macro pressure weighs on FY2026 outlook for ≈$1.35B revenue
Filed 2026-11-03 08:10 ET
- 2.02 Results of Operations
- 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits
Summary
Q3 2026 results with FY2026 guidance. Marketplace originations—loans, HELOC commitments and revolving-credit draws facilitated—reached $4.1B, up 44% Y/Y; technology and marketing advances drove record Contribution Profit, while secured products reached positive Contribution Margin a quarter ahead of plan.
For FY2026, Upstart expects revenue from fees of ≈$1.32B, total revenue of ≈$1.35B and adjusted EBITDA of ≈$260M (19% of revenue). Management said macro conditions are pressuring the near-term outlook.
Key Figures
| Metric | Q3 2026 | 9M 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $371M, +34% Y/Y | $1.04B, +40% Y/Y |
| Income from operations | $36.0M, +52% Y/Y | $43.1M, +82% Y/Y |
| Net income | $36.6M, +15% Y/Y | $46.5M, +33% Y/Y |
| Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) | $89.3M, +26% Y/Y | $207M, +24% Y/Y |
| Diluted EPS | $0.33, +43% Y/Y | $0.44, +57% Y/Y |
| Operating cash flow | — | $(290)M vs $(256)M |
| Originations, dollars | $4.12B, +44% Y/Y | $11.8B, +51% Y/Y |
| Originations, number of loans | 574,089, +34% Y/Y | 1,557,459, +50% Y/Y |
| Contribution Profit (non-GAAP) | $218M, +48% Y/Y | $548M, +40% Y/Y |
| Contribution Margin (non-GAAP) | 60%, vs 57% | 55%, vs 57% |
- Revenue from fees, net, was a record $364M, up 41% Y/Y, including $283M in platform and referral fees, up 31%, and $69.8M in servicing and other fees, up 68%.
- Unsecured Lending generated $330M in fee revenue, up 30% Y/Y, and $212M in Contribution Profit, up 35%; its Contribution Margin was 64%, vs 62%. Auto and Home products’ combined Contribution Margin was 17%, vs negative 179% Y/Y and negative 35% Q/Q.
- Conversion Rate—the number of originations divided by legitimate rate inquiries—was 18.6%, vs 19.4% Y/Y; Upstart plans to discontinue reporting it beginning Q1 2027. YTD operating cash use accompanied $46.5M of net income and $9.72B of purchases and originations of loans held for sale, partly offset by $9.04B of loan-sale proceeds. At 9/30, cash and cash equivalents were $461M, restricted cash was $667M and borrowings were $2.03B, vs $652M, $405M and $1.83B at year-end; YTD stock repurchases were $100M, while shares outstanding rose to 98.9M from 98.0M.
Guidance
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Prior | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue from fees (GAAP) | FY2026 | ≈$1.32B | — | — |
| Total revenue (GAAP) | FY2026 | ≈$1.35B | — | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) | FY2026 | ≈$260M; 19% of total revenue | — | — |
Guidance changes, derived from earlier filings
| Metric | Period | Earlier guidance | Guidance now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (GAAP) | FY2026 | ≈$1.4B | ≈$1.35B | lowered |
| Revenue from fees (GAAP) | FY2026 | ≈$1.3B | ≈$1.32B | raised |
| Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) | FY2026 | ≈$294M; 21% margin | ≈$260M; 19% of total revenue | lowered |
Investor Takeaways
- Watch secured-products combined Contribution Margin: remaining above zero would show that Q3’s early move to positive margin is durable.
- Track marketplace originations and Conversion Rate; continued volume growth alongside stabilization or improvement in the 18.6% conversion rate would indicate the borrower funnel is keeping pace with platform growth.
The summary is written by an AI model reading the filing.
Model 005 · prompt v173 · 2026-11-03 15:40:21Z