CareDx, Inc 8-K

Summary

Q4 and FY2025 results with FY2026 guidance. Testing services and patient and digital solutions drove broad growth: Q4 revenue increased 25% Y/Y, and FY2025 revenue increased 14% Y/Y.

FY2026 revenue guidance is $420M-$444M and adjusted EBITDA guidance is $30M-$45M; the revenue range includes an estimated six-month Medicare local coverage determination (LCD) impact of ≈$7.5M.

Key Figures

• Q4 testing services revenue was $78.4M, +23% Y/Y, on testing volume of ≈53,000, +17% Y/Y. Patient and digital solutions revenue was $16.8M, +47% Y/Y, and product revenue was $13.3M, +17% Y/Y. For FY2025, testing services revenue was $275M, +10% Y/Y, on ≈200,000 tests, +14% Y/Y; patient and digital solutions revenue was $57M, +31% Y/Y, and product revenue was $48M, +19% Y/Y.
• The prior-year GAAP income comparison includes a $96.3M reversal of a litigation accrual in Q4 2024. Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA included ≈$7M of operating expenses for compensation in lieu of equity grants for non-executives.
• CareDx repurchased $12M of shares in Q4 (773,000 shares at an average $15.79 per share) and $88M during FY2025 (5.8M shares at an average $15.16 per share). Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $201M at year-end.

Guidance

Investor Takeaways

• Watch testing services revenue and volume as the estimated six-month Medicare LCD impact flows through 2026; performance against those metrics will show how the coverage change affects the core business.
• CareDx had seven transplant centers live on Epic Aura integrations and ≈20 implementations underway. Further center adoption would show whether the workflow integration is gaining traction.
• AlloHeme validation data supports the company’s expansion into cell therapy and hematologic malignancies; subsequent validation and adoption would test progress beyond solid-organ transplantation.